Learn the 4 Stock Market Stages That Every Trader Should Know
To trade stocks successfully, you must first understand the four
stock market stages that individual stocks and the overall market go
through. These cycles tell you if you should be long, short or in cash.
Once you are able to identify what stage it is in, you can then trade accordingly to those characteristics.
After a while you won't even have to think about whether you should
be long or short. You will know, without question, exactly what you
should be doing NOW. You will either be focusing on long positions,
short positions, or you will stay safely in cash - just by glancing at a
chart!
Here are the four stages that stocks go through. This happens in all
time frames whether it is a monthly chart, weekly chart, daily chart,
or an intraday chart.
Ok, so I'm not the best artist in the world but I think it will serve
our purpose here! What? You thought it would be more complicated that?
My philosophy on the stock market is that if it is too complicated then
it is just not worth doing. Now, we'll look at the characteristics of
the four stock market stages. I promise it will be painless!
Stage one
Stage 1 is the stage right after a prolonged downtrend. This stock
has been going down but now it is starting to trade sideways forming a
base. The sellers who once had the upper hand are now beginning to lose
their power because of the buyers starting to get more aggressive. The
stock just drifts sideways without a clear trend. Everyone hates this
stock!
Stage two
Finally stocks break out into Stage 2 and begins the uptrend. Oh, the
glory of stage 2!! Sometimes I have dreams of stocks in Stage 2! This
is where the majority of the money is made in the stock market. But here
is the funny thing: No one believes the rally! That's right, everyone
still hates the stock. The fundamentals are bad, the outlook is
negative, etc.
But professional traders know better. They are
accumulating shares and getting ready to dump it off to those getting in
late. This sets up stage 3.
Stage three
Finally, after the glorious advance of stage 2, the stock begins to
trade sideways again and starts to "churn".
Novice traders are just now
getting in! This stage is very similar to stage 1. Buyers and sellers
move into equilibrium again and the stock just drifts along. It is now
ready to begin the next stage.
Stage four
This is the dreaded downtrend for those that are long this stock.
But, you know what the funny thing is? You guessed it. Nobody believes
the downtrend! The fundamentals are probably still very good and
everyone still loves this stock. They think the downtrend is just a
"correction". Wrong! They hold and hold and hold, hoping it will reverse
back up again. They probably bought at the end of Stage 2 or during
Stage 3. Sorry, you lose. Checkmate!
Here is an example:

Stock market stages occur in all time frames on every chart you look
at. This could be a five minute chart of Microsoft or a weekly chart of
the Dow.
Generally, you want to stay in cash when a stock (or the market
itself) is chopping around in a stage one. In stage two you will want to
be aggressively focusing on long positions. In stage three you want to
be in cash. In stage four you want to be aggressively focusing on short
positions.